Production matters. Votes of confidence don't

"That's baseball."

Sabermetricians hate those two words. They'd like to think they can measure, infer, interpret, calculate and estimate every aspect of baseball so that the game makes sense.

Then you have Tuesday's game against the Cardinals, where the ice-cold Mets went up against a red-hot Adam Wainwright, who was having one of the best months of July in the history of the game.

The Mets were reeling, shut out four times on an 11-game road trip. They couldn't hit the broad side of Jessica Simpson. Jerry Manuel and his coaching staff, especially hitting coach Howard Johnson, were the subject of all kinds of media speculation. The Phillies passed them in the standings. They were falling further behind in the division and wild card standings. Things looked bleak.

So what happens? The Mets bang out six runs in five innings off of Wainwright and roll to an 8-2 win.

That's baseball.

The only thing that makes sense is that the game was at Citi Field, and at this point we should just enjoy the home wins and not question why the Mets are so good at home and so awful on the road.

Home runs by Francoeur and Reyes helped, as did two hits each by Beltran and Castillo. Jon Niese also chipped in with six innings of one-run ball for his seventh win of the season.

Whether the win jump-starts a Mets resurgance remains to be seen, but one thing it did prove is that performance counts.

Not media speculation, not votes of confidence from the front office, not coaching changes.

The talent must produce. That's what matters most.

That, and getting another starter (Ted Lilly or Brett Myers would be just fine, thanks) so that Takahashi can move to the bullpen.

Because if we're asking the talent to produce, we'd like to see the GM and ownership produce as well.

The home cookin' at Citi Field is tasty

There's been a lot of talk this season about how the Mets weren't filling Citi Field, how so many good seats were still available, how there was no buzz in the building.

Well, the Mets are doing all they can to change that, and they're doing it the best way possible -- by winning.

Because as tasty as the Shake Shack burgers are, what brings fans through the turnstiles are victories, or at least the knowledge that the home team has a good chance to win every game.


The weekend sweep of the Marlins improved the Mets' home record to 22-9, which means if the Mets continue to play that well at home, if you're considering getting tickets to a game, you can do so with the confidence that there is a 70 percent chance of you seeing a win instead of a loss.

Forty percent of the starting rotation is made up of pitchers who can be called stoppers: Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey. R.A. Dickey improved to 3-0 with his win on Friday and gives the rotation a wrinkle that other teams haven't been able to solve.

Jon Niese made a bold statement Saturday in his return from the disabled list, throwing seven innings of six-hit ball, allowing one run and one walk with six strikeouts. He was seen in the dugout asking for one more inning, but Jerry Manuel did the right thing by getting him out with a big lead, allowing him to leave the game with confidence and ensuring that he's well-rested for his next start.

Should Niese continue to pitch as the team believes he can, that's four pitchers whom fans can feel good about paying to see. Hisanori Takahashi, meanwhile, has come down to earth, and while he could bounce back, it seems that if the Mets ever do go out and get another starter -- and there will be plenty available -- then Takahashi would be the candidate to return to the bullpen, where he began the season so successfully.

Manuel wondered whether the team hits better at home because it presses to put up numbers on the road, but perhaps it's because the lineup is just more comfortable hitting in Citi Field's wide-open spaces. Sure, it's not easy to hit home runs straightaway, but you can still hit it out -- just ask Rod Barajas.

Ike Davis has looked particularly comfortable, whether it's hitting a bomb to right field or racking up four hits, as he did Saturday. David Wright may have only hit two homers at Citi Field this season, but his bomb on Saturday showed that he still has plenty of pop down the line.


The major reason for the home-road disparity has been the pitching. Mets starters are allowing two more runs on the road than at Citi Field, while the offense is scoring 4.1 runs on the road, compared to 4.8 at home.

Maybe the pitchers are more comfortable at Citi knowing that the ballpark provides some protection against the long ball and are therefore more aggressive. Perhaps, with 2/3 of the season left to play, the numbers will begin to even out.

Whatever the reasons, right now Citi Field is a fun place to be. Sunday's win was particularly enjoyable, coming back from a 5-0 deficit, featuring a game-tying, three-run homer by Jeff Francoeur. Thanks also to Fredi Gonzalez for playing the infield back and allowing the GWDP (game-winning double play).

Runs may be scarce in the three-game series against the Padres, as Clayton "I have a train to catch" Richard duels against Pelfrey on Tuesday, Mat Latos faces Santana on Wednesday, and Jon "I was available in the off-season but the Mets weren't interested" Garland meets Dickey in game three Thursday.

The way the Mets have been going at home, those sound like wins.

It's panic time. Again.

I guess this is the point of the roller coaster where you scream on the way down.

As I mentioned in a post last week, the Mets' season is going to be a crazy ride whether we like it or not, with plenty of highs and lows. The question of the moment is whether the current drop has hit rock bottom.

Not surprisingly, there are seemingly few among the fans/media willing to weather this current (or, frankly, any) storm. The same people glowing about the Mets during their winning homestand are now wondering again when Jerry will be fired, as if Jon Niese's hamstring injury or Oliver Perez's "Ollieness" or John Maine's sudden inability to throw strikes is somehow his fault.

To his credit, Jerry heeded the call of just about everyone watching this team and returned Jose Reyes to the leadoff spot this weekend (he still refuses to bat Wright third), but that didn't prevent the Mets from being swept by the Marlins. Hence, panic time in Flushing.

Some facts:

There are 124 games remaining, just over 3/4 of the season.

The Mets are four games out of the Wild Card spot currently held by the Giants. They are indeed in last place in the division. They are also 2 games out of second. In May.

Oliver Perez is no longer starting for this team and likely will not again.

David Wright -- who has gone through two ice-cold stretches already and will likely strike out more than 140 times -- still projects to 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 30 steals and 100+ walks, and around .300 (career average: .307).

The Phillies just sent Brad Lidge to the DL. Again.

John Maine, in his three starts prior to Saturday, put up the following lines:

• 6 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
• 6 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Some opinions:

To be scoreboard watching at this early stage of the season is ridiculous, but if you look at the teams the Mets would be competing with for a wild card, do any of them scare you? Assuming the Cardinals and Giants go on to win their divisions, who are we talking about? The Reds, Cubs, Padres, Brewers and the rest of the NL East. OK, maybe the Dodgers.

All teams that have either shown something this season or have the talent to make the playoffs, but all with their own issues. Just like the Mets.

Perez, who won't go to the minors, is playing his way off the team. Omar Minaya will soon have no choice but to release him, because Perez has only three paths ahead of him:

1. Work out his problems in the bullpen and return to the rotation.
2. Figure out a way to be effective in the bullpen as a long man / situational lefty.
3. Released outright.

Option 1 is unlikely, and Option 2 is a possibility but no one is holding his breath. Which leaves Option 3, which will leave Omar with egg on his face, but he's not looking good these days anyway, having rolled the dice on this starting staff without bringing in one other starter to compete for a spot in the rotation. You've got to cut your losses at some point, and that point is fast approaching with Perez.

I refuse to link to the article because it's such nonsense, but there is a column in a NYC daily that claims no one on this team has any trade value other than Santana, although trading everyone would be the right answer. I know you have to sell papers, but please. He also advocates starting Chris Carter over Jeff Francoeur, for more than just a game or two.

Because that's how a guy -- with a well-established reputation as being streaky -- breaks out of a slump. By benching him and his terrific defense for another guy who's a classic AAAA hitter who cannot field a position. Sure. Makes sense to me.

The new closer for the Phillies is -- Jose Contreras. Yes, he's pitching great now, but does anyone think that is sustainable? And Brad Lidge is perilously close to being D-U-N done. The Phillies will be dealing with bullpen issues for the rest of the season, so forgive me not for giving them the division on May 17.

But SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE! Heads must roll! Blame must be laid! The owners are flying to Atlanta!

Here are a couple of suggestions:

Bat Wright third. Despite his up-and-down season and strikeouts, with no Beltran, he is the Mets' best hitter and that's who your third hitter should be. Angel Pagan is a good player, but he's the third of three tablesetter-types at the top of the order, and that's one too many. Move him to sixth ahead of Francoeur and Barajas (yes, in that order). Bay is starting to hit again, and we can only look to his career numbers and assume that the power will follow.

Stop batting guys like Chris Carter fourth. It's preposterous. You like a lefty there, bat Davis fourth. I like Jerry on the whole, but his lineups sometimes are beyond baffling.

As far as Francoeur goes, he'll break out of the slump at some point, but when Beltran comes back, Frenchy is likely the odd man out, or at least he'll end up in a three-man rotation with Beltran and Pagan. He's also the most expendable long-term, unless he somehow bounces back big-time with the bat. Fans and the front office may like him, but no one is married to him. That said, to just exile him to the bench right now is silly.

The injury to Niese is a big wrinkle, but there are signs that it may not be more than a 1- or 2-start thing. If that is the case, the question becomes who replaces Perez in the rotation? It's a tough one because while Hisanori Takahaski was a starter in Japan, he has been excellent in the bullpen, and moving him could hurt the pen for the chance of filling the void in the rotation.

Pat Misch and Dillon Gee could be given the chance to step up and fill the spot, with Takahashi staying where he has been so good. Which means (and I said this on April 19) Jennry Mejia should be sent to Buffalo or Binghamton to start stretching out and resume being a starter. This team could really use him in that role, as opposed to just another right arm in the pen.

And that's what it all comes down to. Starting pitching. When the Mets were hot, the starting pitching was great. In the last week, it's been bad, and losses followed. It's really that simple.

You can say all you want about Minaya's other moves and decisions (Matthews Jr., Castillo, Cora, etc.) but his job comes down to two things: signing Perez and not signing any other starters this off-season.

He took a gamble that the players he had were as good as what was available, and that's looking like a bad bet. Which means it is imperative for him to find someone who can help this season. I'm not talking about a free agent or Pedro Martinez, but a starter acquired via a trade.

Who can he trade? Francoeur, Murphy, and one of several minor leaguers are possibilities, but the most likely scenario is the Mets eating a contract to get a veteran pitcher from a team looking to cut payroll, which theoretically shouldn't cost too much in talent.

Whether the Wilpons will agree to that is unknown, but with so many empty seats and a furious desire -- expressed by the fans as well as the team itself -- to see the Mets' fortunes improve, you'd think that the owners would be willing to do almost anything at this point to turn things around.

Enjoy the ride, people

This is the way it's going to be all season, Mets fans. Buckle up.

The team drops 4 of 5 on the road before getting back-to-back walk-off wins on homers by each catcher, then loses to the Giants on an eighth-inning homer after rallying to take a lead in a game started by Tim Lincecum, followed by a loss to a rookie pitcher, followed by doing next to nothing for seven innings before scoring eight runs in the eighth for one of the most enjoyable victories in recent memory, capped off by a another loss forged by a ninth-inning home run off K-Rod.

No one said the ride was going to be smooth one, and while Wednesday's loss -- coming as it did on the heels of a tremendous comeback win on Tuesday night -- was dispiriting, there's no denying that the vibe around the Mets is a much different one than a year ago, when the team had the same record through the first six weeks.

Then, things were falling apart. Injuries were beginning to take their toll, and by the All-Star break the Mets were a dead team walking.

Now, despite a few red flags (walks allowed, giving up late-inning home runs, not hitting with RISP) and some cold spells suffered by the likes of David Wright, Jason Bay, Jose Reyes and Jeff Francoeur (i.e., the middle of the order), there is much more optimism.

Gary Sheffield and Carlos Delgado have been replaced by players like Francoeur, Bay and Ike Davis. The catching duo of Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco is light years better than what the team had last season. The new additions to the bullpen, especially Hisanori Takahashi (and when he was healthy, Ryota Igarashi) have turned a liability into an asset.

Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, promising Jon Niese and a resurgent John Maine each give the Mets a chance to win whenever they're on the mound.

Fans saw no walk-off wins last season at Citi Field, and this week they got two back-to-back. Resiliency, the hallmark of great teams, is starting to appear. Tuesday's comeback was one for the ages, and featured a clutch pinch hit by Chris "the Animal" Carter, who should have made the team out of spring training and whose relentless attitude provides yet another spark to this club.

What more can you say about Davis, who went over the rail for the third time in about as many weeks for a circus catch, this time for the game-ending grab? Just incredible.

And for all the criticism thrown his way, David Wright is 5-for-10 since being ejected, is hitting .288 with an OBP of .419 and and OPS of .961, projecting to about 28 homers and 105 RBI. Awful, isn't it?

Sure, Reyes isn't hitting, but the Mets have benefited by having different players step up at different times. Davis has been excellent, and Barajas has been a revelation.

The cheating Phillies -- and I agree 100% with Francoeur that the extra three home games the Phils are getting against Toronto is "bullsh&t" -- aren't running away with anything just yet. There's plenty of talent and fight in this Mets team, enough to expect it to hang in the race for the division title for a good, long while.

Take Wednesday's game. Although the Mets were down, 4-2, I had every confidence that they could make up the deficit, and they did. You couldn't say that last season.

If it wasn't for Roger Bernardina (Two home runs? Really?), who drove in three and saved three with a diving, two-out catch with the bases loaded, Wednesday could have been just as exciting as Tuesday.

But with these Mets, there's always a tomorrow to look forward to. Last season, there were only tomorrows to dread.

Good Ollie, bad bullpen

My gut reaction when Jerry Manuel exited the dugout to replace Oliver Perez with one out in the seventh inning against the Cardinals? "Don't take him out!"

How's that for bizarre?

Perez gave Mets fans what they've been looking for and then some, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings until the bullpen turned a 1-0 lead into a 4-1 deficit. Nice to see the Mets get two back in the ninth and show some fight, but a loss is a loss. This one, though, I can't get too upset about, despite the fact that it came via a grand slam by Felipe Lopez (who somehow has five of those).

If Perez could pitch like that just half the time, it would go a long way toward solving the Mets' pitching issues. He has always had the stuff, and when you see him put it together like he did, it's impressive. And a bit infuriating when you wonder why he can't pitch that way more often.

You can't blame Jerry for taking Ollie out when he did. He's been burned too many times in the past, because when Ollie goes, he goes fast. Sure, he could have left him in to face the struggling Ryan, but then the righthanded Holliday was coming up next anyway.

This was about a bullpen that has been tremendous so far not executing. Nieve started the season solid but has gotten hammered in two of his last three appearances. And Valdes, who had looked like a revelation, got burned on a bad pitch.

The Mets played terrific defense, especially from David Wright, and Francoeur also made a nice catch while getting two hits and scoring twice, including the first run on a baserunning mistake that the Cardinals turned into a run.

Carpenter, as Gary Cohen noted, should have been the Cy Young winner last season and was as sharp as Perez in what was a superb pitcher's duel. So I can't really lay too much blame on the offense, nor Perez for pitching great, nor Jerry for making reasonable moves (Feliciano was ill and unavailable), nor a defense that backed up Perez big-time -- with the lone exception of David Freese's infield hit on a grounder to Reyes, who usually makes that play. Of course, that led off the seventh and turned into the tying run.

This one is on Nieve and Valdes, and we hope that this doesn't mean the bullpen is starting to unravel.