It's panic time. Again.

I guess this is the point of the roller coaster where you scream on the way down.

As I mentioned in a post last week, the Mets' season is going to be a crazy ride whether we like it or not, with plenty of highs and lows. The question of the moment is whether the current drop has hit rock bottom.

Not surprisingly, there are seemingly few among the fans/media willing to weather this current (or, frankly, any) storm. The same people glowing about the Mets during their winning homestand are now wondering again when Jerry will be fired, as if Jon Niese's hamstring injury or Oliver Perez's "Ollieness" or John Maine's sudden inability to throw strikes is somehow his fault.

To his credit, Jerry heeded the call of just about everyone watching this team and returned Jose Reyes to the leadoff spot this weekend (he still refuses to bat Wright third), but that didn't prevent the Mets from being swept by the Marlins. Hence, panic time in Flushing.

Some facts:

There are 124 games remaining, just over 3/4 of the season.

The Mets are four games out of the Wild Card spot currently held by the Giants. They are indeed in last place in the division. They are also 2 games out of second. In May.

Oliver Perez is no longer starting for this team and likely will not again.

David Wright -- who has gone through two ice-cold stretches already and will likely strike out more than 140 times -- still projects to 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 30 steals and 100+ walks, and around .300 (career average: .307).

The Phillies just sent Brad Lidge to the DL. Again.

John Maine, in his three starts prior to Saturday, put up the following lines:

• 6 IP, 4 hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• 6 IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
• 6 IP, 7 hits, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

Some opinions:

To be scoreboard watching at this early stage of the season is ridiculous, but if you look at the teams the Mets would be competing with for a wild card, do any of them scare you? Assuming the Cardinals and Giants go on to win their divisions, who are we talking about? The Reds, Cubs, Padres, Brewers and the rest of the NL East. OK, maybe the Dodgers.

All teams that have either shown something this season or have the talent to make the playoffs, but all with their own issues. Just like the Mets.

Perez, who won't go to the minors, is playing his way off the team. Omar Minaya will soon have no choice but to release him, because Perez has only three paths ahead of him:

1. Work out his problems in the bullpen and return to the rotation.
2. Figure out a way to be effective in the bullpen as a long man / situational lefty.
3. Released outright.

Option 1 is unlikely, and Option 2 is a possibility but no one is holding his breath. Which leaves Option 3, which will leave Omar with egg on his face, but he's not looking good these days anyway, having rolled the dice on this starting staff without bringing in one other starter to compete for a spot in the rotation. You've got to cut your losses at some point, and that point is fast approaching with Perez.

I refuse to link to the article because it's such nonsense, but there is a column in a NYC daily that claims no one on this team has any trade value other than Santana, although trading everyone would be the right answer. I know you have to sell papers, but please. He also advocates starting Chris Carter over Jeff Francoeur, for more than just a game or two.

Because that's how a guy -- with a well-established reputation as being streaky -- breaks out of a slump. By benching him and his terrific defense for another guy who's a classic AAAA hitter who cannot field a position. Sure. Makes sense to me.

The new closer for the Phillies is -- Jose Contreras. Yes, he's pitching great now, but does anyone think that is sustainable? And Brad Lidge is perilously close to being D-U-N done. The Phillies will be dealing with bullpen issues for the rest of the season, so forgive me not for giving them the division on May 17.

But SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE! Heads must roll! Blame must be laid! The owners are flying to Atlanta!

Here are a couple of suggestions:

Bat Wright third. Despite his up-and-down season and strikeouts, with no Beltran, he is the Mets' best hitter and that's who your third hitter should be. Angel Pagan is a good player, but he's the third of three tablesetter-types at the top of the order, and that's one too many. Move him to sixth ahead of Francoeur and Barajas (yes, in that order). Bay is starting to hit again, and we can only look to his career numbers and assume that the power will follow.

Stop batting guys like Chris Carter fourth. It's preposterous. You like a lefty there, bat Davis fourth. I like Jerry on the whole, but his lineups sometimes are beyond baffling.

As far as Francoeur goes, he'll break out of the slump at some point, but when Beltran comes back, Frenchy is likely the odd man out, or at least he'll end up in a three-man rotation with Beltran and Pagan. He's also the most expendable long-term, unless he somehow bounces back big-time with the bat. Fans and the front office may like him, but no one is married to him. That said, to just exile him to the bench right now is silly.

The injury to Niese is a big wrinkle, but there are signs that it may not be more than a 1- or 2-start thing. If that is the case, the question becomes who replaces Perez in the rotation? It's a tough one because while Hisanori Takahaski was a starter in Japan, he has been excellent in the bullpen, and moving him could hurt the pen for the chance of filling the void in the rotation.

Pat Misch and Dillon Gee could be given the chance to step up and fill the spot, with Takahashi staying where he has been so good. Which means (and I said this on April 19) Jennry Mejia should be sent to Buffalo or Binghamton to start stretching out and resume being a starter. This team could really use him in that role, as opposed to just another right arm in the pen.

And that's what it all comes down to. Starting pitching. When the Mets were hot, the starting pitching was great. In the last week, it's been bad, and losses followed. It's really that simple.

You can say all you want about Minaya's other moves and decisions (Matthews Jr., Castillo, Cora, etc.) but his job comes down to two things: signing Perez and not signing any other starters this off-season.

He took a gamble that the players he had were as good as what was available, and that's looking like a bad bet. Which means it is imperative for him to find someone who can help this season. I'm not talking about a free agent or Pedro Martinez, but a starter acquired via a trade.

Who can he trade? Francoeur, Murphy, and one of several minor leaguers are possibilities, but the most likely scenario is the Mets eating a contract to get a veteran pitcher from a team looking to cut payroll, which theoretically shouldn't cost too much in talent.

Whether the Wilpons will agree to that is unknown, but with so many empty seats and a furious desire -- expressed by the fans as well as the team itself -- to see the Mets' fortunes improve, you'd think that the owners would be willing to do almost anything at this point to turn things around.

Swing the damn bat

My son is 8 years old and in his second season of Little League ball. It's the first year of "real baseball," where they keep track of balls, strikes, outs and runs, and where the coaches no longer pitch.

(Side note: If you ever want to test your patience and/or sanity, watch 8-year-olds pitch. Sure, there are a couple who can get it over the plate with some speed, but for the most part it's like watching someone try to kill flies with darts -- lots of aiming, lots of misses.)

Since kids pitch all over the place, the strike zone is, shall we say, liberal. So the rule of thumb is, if it's not over your head or bouncing in front of the plate, if you think you can hit it, just swing the bat.

It leads to some confusion. My son hates walking -- he has a brand new bat and wants to HIT! -- but I tell him that a walk is as good as a hit, that the object is to get on base. But then we're also telling them not to go up and take too many pitches, either, and the teenage umpires charged with moving the game along are going to call anything from the bridge of your nose to your shoestrings a strike.

Anyway, I thought of my son's games while watching the Mets Monday night.

Jose Reyes, in the bottom of the seventh, just swing the f*&#ing bat!

Jason Bay, leading off the bottom of the eighth, just swing the f*&#ing bat!

Luis Castillo, with one out in the ninth after Angel Pagan cut the gap to one with a solo homer to center (see what happens when you swing?) -- just swing the f*&#ing bat!

Of course, swinging doesn't guarantee anything good will happen. Bay swung in the bottom of the ninth and struck out to end the game. Rod Barajas swung with two outs and runners on second and third in the eighth and popped up.

But for Reyes, Bay and Castillo, in crucial situations like that, if it's close, you SWING!

Mets fans are, of course, especially sensitive to seeing things end with the bat on someone's shoulder, having endured watching Carlos Beltran look at a called third strike to end the 2006 NLCS. And yes, there are times when you want to work the count, make the pitcher throw some more, wear him down.

But in the situations listed above, fellas, I'm begging you -- just swing the f*&#ing bat!

And while I'm off on a rant, Oliver Perez, will you shave that chin strap beard and lose the faux-hawk? You look ridiculous, and it looks even more ridiculous because you suck.

Mike Piazza rocked the chin strap and some interesting facial grooming, but he is a future Hall of Famer and could get away with pretty much anything. For Perez to look like he does, he better have some game, because otherwise, he just looks like a dork.

That's not to say that a shave and a haircut will cure what ails Ollie, but it couldn't hurt. At least I'd hate his face less.

Good Ollie, bad bullpen

My gut reaction when Jerry Manuel exited the dugout to replace Oliver Perez with one out in the seventh inning against the Cardinals? "Don't take him out!"

How's that for bizarre?

Perez gave Mets fans what they've been looking for and then some, throwing 6 1/3 shutout innings until the bullpen turned a 1-0 lead into a 4-1 deficit. Nice to see the Mets get two back in the ninth and show some fight, but a loss is a loss. This one, though, I can't get too upset about, despite the fact that it came via a grand slam by Felipe Lopez (who somehow has five of those).

If Perez could pitch like that just half the time, it would go a long way toward solving the Mets' pitching issues. He has always had the stuff, and when you see him put it together like he did, it's impressive. And a bit infuriating when you wonder why he can't pitch that way more often.

You can't blame Jerry for taking Ollie out when he did. He's been burned too many times in the past, because when Ollie goes, he goes fast. Sure, he could have left him in to face the struggling Ryan, but then the righthanded Holliday was coming up next anyway.

This was about a bullpen that has been tremendous so far not executing. Nieve started the season solid but has gotten hammered in two of his last three appearances. And Valdes, who had looked like a revelation, got burned on a bad pitch.

The Mets played terrific defense, especially from David Wright, and Francoeur also made a nice catch while getting two hits and scoring twice, including the first run on a baserunning mistake that the Cardinals turned into a run.

Carpenter, as Gary Cohen noted, should have been the Cy Young winner last season and was as sharp as Perez in what was a superb pitcher's duel. So I can't really lay too much blame on the offense, nor Perez for pitching great, nor Jerry for making reasonable moves (Feliciano was ill and unavailable), nor a defense that backed up Perez big-time -- with the lone exception of David Freese's infield hit on a grounder to Reyes, who usually makes that play. Of course, that led off the seventh and turned into the tying run.

This one is on Nieve and Valdes, and we hope that this doesn't mean the bullpen is starting to unravel. 

Nothing but rainbows and lollipops in Port St. Lucie

Kelvim Escobar's throwing timetable aside, the news out of the Mets spring training facility has been almost unrelentingly positive. Maybe it's just hope springing eternal, but there have been so many feel-good stories out of Port St. Lonesome that it would surpise no one if, during a fielding drill, a High School Musical-like dance routine spontaneously broke out.

Examples?

Henry Blanco and Rod Barajas: Two defensive-minded backstops (Blanco caught Johan Santana in his Cy Young season in Minnesota) have been getting all kinds of love for their reputations as guys who can really help a pitching staff and whip into shape those who may need some whipping (we're looking at you, Ollie and Big Pelf). That, and they couldn't have been had any cheaper. Nice work, Omar.

Jose Reyes: Holy cow, is it great seeing him on the field again. And now that he finally has custom-made shoes from UnderArmour, we can all breathe easy. As for Reyes batting third, if he's cool with it, why not? As Eric Karabell notes on ESPN, batting third won't necessarily mean a big drop in stolen bases. Even if it did, if the offense performed better as a whole, that's what really matters. And it would deepen the lineup. Hmmmmm.

Keith Hernandez working with Daniel Murphy and others at first base: I'm really looking forward to seeing what Murphy can do this year. Getting 15 HR, 40 2B, 70-80 RBI and a .270 average is certainly in the realm of possibility, and would be great considering where he'd be hitting in a lineup after Reyes, Wright, Bay, Beltran (eventually) and probably Francouer. And you know his defense will be better. Why? Because his teacher is Keith Hernandez, that's why.

Beltran's right on target: At least that's what he's saying, but hearing that he was pain-free the day after all the junk was taken out of his knee was heartening.

Pelfrey and Perez came in to camp in shape: Big Pelf is actually Not-Quite-as-Big Pelf, having lost 20 pounds or so, and though there were some differing tweets, by all accounts Ollie looks good. Here's hoping his off-season training regimen included regular visits with someone like Dr. Melfi. Luis Castillo also reported to camp in great shape, saying he was undaunted by the constant trade rumors.


Jason Bay's one hell of a guy (and ballplayer): Signing autographs immediately upon his arrival in St. Lucie, Bay only solidified his reputation as a solid clubhouse presence, which will go nicely alongside his offensive numbers.

There was much talk in the winter about "changing the culture" of the team, and think about who's gone. Carlos Delgado, who may have had too much presence and aloofness, and Gary Sheffield, replaced by Bay, Blanco and Barajas.

Sounds like an upgrade in character, too. Then again, that may just be the Kool-Aid talking.